Be lazy after my Japan trip, feeling can’t be lazy anymore
Let’s start with a summary:
Returning to the theory I mentioned earlier, it’s highly likely that we’re entering the period between 1964 and 1984. Of course, due to time compression, the initial 20 years might be compressed to over half, roughly 5 to 10 years. However, the process will be very similar.
If the theory holds true, it’s unlikely for us to enter a true bull market in the short term. We might surpass the previous highs (before the elections), but then be pulled back. Also, note that the highs won’t go beyond, but the lows might break new lows.
Based on historical experiences, the second half of the year before the election tends to see more declines in the stock market. The strength usually starts after the Chinese New Year. Although many analysts believe in a rise followed by a correction, I personally think we’re about to return to a bear market and will likely initiate a minor bull run around May next year.
This aligns cyclically with the three major indexes. In my opinion, the mid-term period needs more attention.
Of course, this is just a general directional speculation. In actual trading, follow any signals or patterns with discipline.
As anticipated, we haven’t reached 3 yet. Currently, there seems to be some support, watch if 34,727 faces resistance. Also, whether it can climb back above 3 is the key point.
Now, we need to worry about whether the bull market ends and returns to a bear market. A simple approach is to consider the worst-case scenario, indicated by the purple and blue lines. This approach is based on AB=CD and time cycles.
If we really enter a bear market, the target is to see a minor bull run again around May next year during the election period.
Similar to DJI’s trend, watch the level at 13,841. But overall, it’s roughly equivalent to DJI.
对於SPX 4457~4541 这个区间要特别注意
This timing and range have been the most accurate (predicted on March 10th this year), perhaps because my focus is mostly on analyzing SPX. There was a bounce on Friday. We’ll need to observe next week whether it can break the range and hold steady. Given the current situation, it might be challenging.
For SPX, the range of 4457 to 4541 requires special attention. As long as there’s no effective breakthrough, the market won’t have a chance to turn bullish or reverse.
For me personally, the true turning point defining the transition to a bear market is at 1.
After the channel I drew broke, there was an aggressive drop. Now, we need to focus on whether it can return above 26,500. If the decline continues and can’t hold at 25,596, the target is around 21,500.