inflection point!!!!

休息了一趟回来 觉得不能再发懒了

Be lazy after my Japan trip, feeling can’t be lazy anymore

先说总结
回到我之前提过的理论
现在很有可能是要走1964~1984这段时期
当然依照时间压缩的关系
当初的20年可能会被压缩到1/2以上
大约是5~10年间
但过程会极为类似

如果理论成立
短期内很难进入真牛市
或许会突破新高(选举前)
但是会被拉回
而且要注意的是高点不过
但低点会破新低

而依照过往经验
选前一年的下半年股市统计上是跌多
过年後才开始转强
虽然目前很多分析师是认为涨多回档
但我个人是认为即将回归熊市
到明年5月再重启小牛

而这点在3大指数上周期吻合
个人认为中段期要多留意

当然这只是一个大方向的推测
实际操作上有什麽讯号或型态都按照纪律进行即可

Let’s start with a summary:
Returning to the theory I mentioned earlier, it’s highly likely that we’re entering the period between 1964 and 1984. Of course, due to time compression, the initial 20 years might be compressed to over half, roughly 5 to 10 years. However, the process will be very similar.
If the theory holds true, it’s unlikely for us to enter a true bull market in the short term. We might surpass the previous highs (before the elections), but then be pulled back. Also, note that the highs won’t go beyond, but the lows might break new lows.
Based on historical experiences, the second half of the year before the election tends to see more declines in the stock market. The strength usually starts after the Chinese New Year. Although many analysts believe in a rise followed by a correction, I personally think we’re about to return to a bear market and will likely initiate a minor bull run around May next year.
This aligns cyclically with the three major indexes. In my opinion, the mid-term period needs more attention.
Of course, this is just a general directional speculation. In actual trading, follow any signals or patterns with discipline.

DJI
如预期过3不到2
目前看起来有点支撑注意34727是否会有压力
另外是否能回到3以上才是重点

现在要担心是否会牛市结束回熊
简易抓 最坏情况看紫色及蓝色线
会这样抓建立在AB=CD 及时间周期

如果真的回熊 目标明年5月才会再反小牛进入选举行情

As anticipated, we haven’t reached 3 yet. Currently, there seems to be some support, watch if 34,727 faces resistance. Also, whether it can climb back above 3 is the key point.
Now, we need to worry about whether the bull market ends and returns to a bear market. A simple approach is to consider the worst-case scenario, indicated by the purple and blue lines. This approach is based on AB=CD and time cycles.
If we really enter a bear market, the target is to see a minor bull run again around May next year during the election period.

NDQ
跟DJI走势一样
注意点数13841这个区间
但大致上等同 DJI

Similar to DJI’s trend, watch the level at 13,841. But overall, it’s roughly equivalent to DJI.

SPX
这个时间点及范围抓的最准 (今年3月10号的预估)
或许是因为我重心大部分都是分析SPX
礼拜五当日有反弹
要观察下礼拜是否能突破区间有效站稳
但以目前整体形势或许有困难

对於SPX 4457~4541 这个区间要特别注意
只要没有有效突破
市场没有看多及反转的机会

对我个人而言 真正定义为牛市的转折线是1

This timing and range have been the most accurate (predicted on March 10th this year), perhaps because my focus is mostly on analyzing SPX. There was a bounce on Friday. We’ll need to observe next week whether it can break the range and hold steady. Given the current situation, it might be challenging.
For SPX, the range of 4457 to 4541 requires special attention. As long as there’s no effective breakthrough, the market won’t have a chance to turn bullish or reverse.
For me personally, the true turning point defining the transition to a bear market is at 1.

BTC
之前画的通道破了以後直接来一根杀盘
现在要关注的是能否回到26500以上
如果续跌不能守住25596
目标先看21500左右

After the channel I drew broke, there was an aggressive drop. Now, we need to focus on whether it can return above 26,500. If the decline continues and can’t hold at 25,596, the target is around 21,500.

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